Asset Allocation & Risk Tolerance Calculator for Expats

// Your Allocation

Stocks Allocation

% in stocks80%

80%

80% Stocks 20% Bonds

Portfolio Amount

Current Portfolio Value (QAR)

QAR

Used to show worst-case loss in your currency

The Honest Question

If your portfolio dropped — in a single year, what would you do?

Stay the course - even invest more at the lower price. I understand crashes are temporary.

Feel uncomfortable but hold - I'd be anxious but wouldn't sell.

Seriously consider selling to stop the losses. The anxiety would be hard to manage.

Sell - I cannot accept this level of loss. My financial obligations are too important.

NextSee the cost of market timing

Market Timing →

Historical Returns: 80% Stocks / 20% Bonds Vanguard Data 1926-2023

Best Year +45.4% Year: 1933

Average Year +9.5% Long-run average

Worst Year -34.9% Year: 1931

Worst-Case Loss on Portfolio - at current portfolio value

            Expected Annual Growth
            -
            on current portfolio
          

Years Losing Money - of every 10 years historically

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Best / Average / Worst by Allocation Full Range 0-100% Stocks

Source: Vanguard historical analysis. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.

All Allocations Compared Historical Summary

Stocks/Bonds	Best Year	Average Year	Worst Year	Losing Years/10

Now see what happens when you try to time the market Missing just 5 of the best trading days can cut your returns by 35%

Market Timing Calculator →

Why the right asset allocation is personal

The Bogleheads philosophy is clear: there is no universally correct stocks/bonds split. What matters is choosing an allocation you will stick to through a bear market - when your portfolio drops 30-40% and every financial news headline is predicting the end of the world.

If you panic and sell at the bottom, an "optimal" 100% stocks portfolio becomes far worse than a "suboptimal" 60% stocks portfolio you stayed in. The right allocation is the highest-risk one you can hold without selling.

What the Vanguard data shows

Vanguard's analysis of US market data from 1926 to 2023 (covering the Great Depression, World War II, the dot-com crash, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2020 COVID crash) shows a consistent pattern: higher stock allocations produce higher average returns and higher worst-case losses.

An 80/20 portfolio has an average annual return of 9.5%, a best year of +45.4%, and a worst year of -34.9%. A 60/40 portfolio has a lower average (8.7%) but a less severe worst year (-26.6%). The question is always: which scenario can you live with?

Frequently Asked Questions

What stock/bond split should a Doha expat use?

For long-term investors with a 15-30 year horizon (typical for an expat mid-career in Doha), the Bogleheads recommendation is 80-100% equities if you have the emotional capacity to hold through a bear market. If you have significant near-term cash needs or lower risk tolerance, 60-70% equities may be more suitable.

What is a bear market and how often do they happen?

A bear market is when the stock market falls 20% or more from its recent high. Historically they occur every 3-5 years on average, last about 12 months on average, and fall 33% on average. Every single bear market in history has been followed by a recovery to new highs. The problem is investor behaviour during the downturn.

Which ETFs should I buy for a global 80/20 portfolio?

For non-US investors, the SimplyFI community recommends: 80% Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF Accumulating (VWRA) and 20% iShares Global Government Bond UCITS ETF Accumulating (IGLA). Both are Ireland-domiciled, avoiding US estate tax issues. Both have low TERs (0.22% and 0.20% respectively).

Should the allocation change as I get older?

There's a popular rule of thumb of "your age in bonds" (e.g. 40 years old = 40% bonds). The Bogleheads view is that this is too simplistic. Your allocation should reflect your need to take risk, ability to absorb losses, and investment time horizon - not just age. A 55-year-old still working with a 20-year horizon may want more equities than a 40-year-old planning to retire in 5 years.